In this article, learn about:
Four-quarter inventory forecasting
BFCM risk mitigation strategies
Optimized execution for peak profits
Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) can often feel like an intense sprint, but successful suppliers know it is a year-long marathon.
Sadly, many teams wait until the end of summer (and even early fall) to think seriously about BFCM. But by then, inventory decisions are locked in, transportation capacity can be tight, and there’s truly little time to fix what might break. The result is stockouts, missed sales, and costly deductions.
The strongest BFCM strategies are built slowly and intentionally, quarter by quarter. Each phase of the year serves a distinct purpose, and this guide walks through how to plan for BFCM throughout the year.
Q1: Foundation, Forecasting, and Retro Analysis
The primary goal of Q1 is to create a clean, realistic baseline for the year (high sales times and low sales times included). This is done by using internal data and lessons learned from the previous BFCM season.
This first quarter is often overlooked in BFCM planning, but it is where the most critical decisions are made. This is the quarter to evaluate what worked and what didn’t in the previous year. Those lessons can then be translated into measurable improvements.
Q1 isn’t about selling more; it’s about understanding more. It is the time to look in the rearview mirror before hitting the gas.
Review What Actually Happened in the Previous Year
Start with a clear assessment of the previous BFCM season:
What sold faster than expected?
Which SKUs underperformed?
Where did raw materials run out early?
Where did delays occur?
Where did chargebacks and disputes occur?
Avoid guessing or relying on memory. Use first-party data to tell the story clearly and objectively. Not all SKUs should be treated equally during this assortment planning phase. Suppliers should be sure to review which products drove the most revenue versus actual profit margins.
Strengthen First-Party Data and Visibility
Q1 is the time to make sure your data foundation is solid. Visibility gaps now will turn into blind spots later.
Teams should:
Validate sales, inventory, and fulfillment data
Confirm EDI documents are accurate and consistent
Ensure reporting tools are aligned across sales teams, supply chain operations, and finance
If data is fragmented throughout the year, forecasting will be unreliable. Suppliers should be sure to align multiplatform inventory data into a single source of truth.
Begin Forecasting Early
Forecasting doesn’t start in Q3. It starts right here in Q1.
Use historical data as an inventory forecasting tool to:
Identify high-velocity SKUs
Spot seasonal patterns
Account for promos and channel shifts
Early forecasts don’t need to be perfect. They need to be directionally accurate to give teams a shared starting point for the year ahead.
Q1 is the blueprint stage. If the foundation is uneven, everything built on top of it will be unstable. Strong BFCM outcomes begin with clear data, honest analysis, and early alignment.
Related Reading: What is CPFR? Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment
Q2: Inventory Commitments and Operational Readiness
The primary goal of Q2 is to secure raw materials, confirm inventory commitments, and stress test operational readiness.
Q2 is when suppliers often “forget” about BFCM preparations. The past BFCM sales season seems distant, and the upcoming one is still months away. Suppliers who can keep their eyes on the prize during this time are far better positioned for success than those who do not.
Finalize Inventory and Raw Material Orders
With forecasts in place, Q2 is the time to:
Submit orders for raw materials based on those numbers
Confirm production timelines
Align inventory levels with projected demand
Waiting too long increases risk. Lead times stretch quickly, and suppliers who delay decisions often pay more or get less.
Stress Test the Supply Chain
Once orders and timelines are finalized, use Q2 to think through potential problems.
This is the time to test scenarios like:
Late or canceled raw material shipments
Transportation delays
Labor shortages
Early or unexpected demand spikes
Running through these scenarios allows teams to adjust before the stakes are high.
Align Internal Teams
BFCM success requires coordination across departments. In Q2:
Sales, supply chain operations, and finance teams should align expectations
Promotions and inventory plans should match
Contingency plans should be discussed and documented
Suppliers should also use this time to review and validate service level agreements (SLAs) with third-party logistics providers.
Q2 is about commitment. Once inventory and production decisions are made, flexibility decreases. Suppliers who stay focused during this quiet quarter have a leg up on those who look away.
Related Reading: Holiday Merchandising and Supply Planning
Q3: Peak Execution Prep and Risk Management
The primary goal of Q3 is to finalize logistics, validate systems, and prepare for peak execution. Suppliers should test system readiness and amp up operations to ensure productivity matches demand.
Q3 is the perfect time to ensure the supply chain is operating as it should and can withstand a massive influx in operational load. This is the last chance to fix what isn’t working.
Confirm Transportation and Fulfillment Plans
Capacity tightens quickly in Q3. This is the time to:
Secure transportation commitments
Confirm warehouse and fulfillment readiness
Suppliers should assume delays will happen and plan around them.
Validate Data Flow and EDI Accuracy
Small errors during peak season can create huge problems down the line.
Q3 should include:
Labeling and advance ship notice (ASN) accuracy audits
System monitoring (for anomalies, volume spikes, and inconsistencies)
Clean execution during BFCM depends on systems that perform under pressure.
Finalize Contingency Plans
By the end of Q3, teams should know:
Which SKUs can be replenished quickly
Which products are most at risk of stockout
What actions trigger escalation
This clarity reduces panic when demand accelerates.
Related Reading: The Structure of EDI 856 ASNs
Q4: Rapid Response, Execution, and Monitoring
Primary Goal: Execute confidently, monitor performance in real -time, and document insights for next year.
Q4 is game time. Planning gives way to execution, but the work isn’t over. Response time should be nearly immediate. Teams should be monitoring systems for any anomalies to be handled with rapid attention.
Monitor Performance in Real Time
During this time, suppliers should:
Track inventory and sell-through daily
Monitor order-to-cash cycles
Watch for ASN or invoicing errors
Monitor retailer scorecards and alerts
Visibility allows teams to react quickly instead of guessing.
Respond Quickly To Issues
Even with strong planning, issues will arise. Successful teams:
Address problems early and honestly
Communicate clearly with partners and customers alike
Document root causes as they happen
Speed and clarity matter far more than perfection.
Capture Lessons Immediately
Once the season winds down, don’t wait months to reflect. Suppliers should be sure to document:
What exceeded expectations
Where execution broke down
Which decisions paid off (and which ones didn’t)
Q4 is both the finish line and the starting point. These insights feed directly into next year’s Q1 planning cycle. How well teams capture learnings now determines how much stronger they’ll be next year.
Frequently Asked Questions Regarding BFCM Planning
What is the primary goal of Q1 retrospective analysis?
The primary goal of Q1 retrospective analysis is to establish areas of success, as well as areas of improvement, to inform future decisions.
How does a year-round planning cycle mitigate risks and maximize revenue during BFCM?
By planning the sales spike four quarters in advance, suppliers are able to identify problems before they cause massive issues within the supply chain. Data-driven demand forecasting, long-term marketing, and customer retention are helpful to increase profit margins.
What systems should be stress tested during Q3?
Order management system (OMS)
Warehouse management system (WMS)
Service level agreements (SLA)
eCommerce platforms
Third-party logistics operations
How does a supplier stress test?
Start by defining risk scenarios. Then, simulate the disruption and analyze it for any improvements. Once suppliers have developed and tested the mitigation action, they should review the entire process and reiterate to ensure refinement.
What are the primary goals for suppliers in Q4 during peak sales?
If the previous quarters were spent building and testing a high-speed race car, Q4 is the actual race day. The primary goal is no longer to tinker with the engine, but to keep a constant eye on the dashboard gauges (monitoring) and have the pit crew ready to change a tire in seconds (rapid response) to ensure the car stays on the track and crosses the finish line in first place.
Final Takeaways
Planning for BFCM isn’t about reacting faster, it’s about preparing earlier. When suppliers treat BFCM as a year-long journey instead of a last-minute scramble, they gain:
Better inventory availability
Fewer disruptions
Stronger retail relationships
More predictable revenue
Each quarter has a role to play. Miss one and the entire plan weakens. However, when suppliers follow this four-quarter plan, BFCM becomes less chaotic and far more profitable.
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